[Associated Press' Ian James reports on the results of an AP commissioned poll that shows that the strong majority of Venezuelans plan to cast their ballots for President Hugo Chavez on the December 3rd presidential election. About 59 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Chavez for a third term, while 27 percent said they would support opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. --Ed]
A woman embroiders in a workshop, where workers manufacture t-shirts
which will be used during Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's
re-election campaign, in a state-run development project in Caracas
November 24, 2006. The t-shirt reads,
'Venezuela now belongs to all'. Credit: Francesco Spotorno/Reuters
Associated Press Poll Shows Chavez With Strong Lead
By Ian James - Associated Press
November 23, 2006
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- A strong majority of Venezuelans plan to cast their ballots for President Hugo Chavez on Dec. 3, with most saying the fiery opponent of President Bush has handled government and foreign relations well, according to an AP-Ipsos poll that revealed deep divisions along class lines.
About 59 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Chavez for a third term, while 27 percent said they would support opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. Thirteen percent of those surveyed by the polling firm Ipsos for The Associated Press said they were undecided or wouldn't answer.
Since Chavez was first elected in 1998, the leftist president has become perhaps Latin America's most controversial leader while gaining notoriety worldwide as an outspoken critic of the U.S. government.
At home, the poll showed, Venezuelans are generally content with the country's direction, with 61 percent of all respondents saying Venezuela is moving in the right direction and 31 percent saying it's on the wrong track.
The survey found sharp differences in voting preference depending on income. The wealthiest likely voters solidly supported Rosales, while the middle class appeared split and the poorest overwhelmingly backed Chavez over Rosales - 70 percent to 16 percent.
Overall, 63 percent said they approve of Chavez's administration, although 66 percent said they see Chavez as authoritarian. Chavez is a close ally of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, but an overwhelming 84 percent said they oppose adopting a political system like Cuba's - and that view cut across class lines.
The survey was carried out Nov. 10-18 among 2,500 registered voters interviewed face-to-face at their homes, including 1,500 determined by the pollsters to be likely voters based on their answers and historical turnout levels. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for results among registered voters, and 3 points for likely voters.
Despite Chavez's often bombastic style, including a recent speech to the United Nations in which he called Bush "the devil," 59 percent said they approve of Chavez's handling of international relations.
A majority, 63 percent, said they have a negative view of Bush, while 55 percent expressed an unfavorable view of the United States in general. Fewer - 44 percent - had an unfavorable view of American people, compared with 48 percent who had a positive view of Americans.
A huge majority, 79 percent, said they consider the political system in Venezuela at least somewhat democratic, though that majority was smaller for the middle class and the wealthy than for the poorest. And 46 percent said there seems to be less freedom in Venezuela today than in the past.
Chavez has increasingly dominated Venezuelan politics since he was first elected nearly eight years ago. In 1999, he oversaw constitutional reforms that triggered new elections, and he easily secured a six-year term in 2000.
Overall, only 44 percent were very confident that votes would be counted accurately and only 42 percent were very confident their votes would be kept secret. Rosales supporters were much less confident in the process.
A full 57 percent of respondents were at least somewhat concerned that people could face reprisals for how they vote - 79 percent of Rosales supporters and 46 percent of Chavez supporters. Such a fear factor is a potential source of survey error, meaning for instance that some respondents might feel afraid to tell an interviewer they support Rosales.
The poll offered contrasting assessments of Chavez himself. Sixty percent saw him as confrontational, while 48 percent thought he put his personal political interests above those of Venezuela. On the other hand, 64 percent said he solves people's problems and 59 percent described him as a good administrator.
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