[José A. Laguarta Ramírez argues that with the
consolidation of Chavista hegemony, and after years of uncertainty and
attempts at destabilisation, the question remains: What does the future
hold for the "Bolivarian Revolution"? Certainly, the coming months will
see intense internal debates take shape. --Ed]
After the "Red Tide": New Challenges for Revolutionary Venezuela
By José A. Laguarta Ramírez
December 10, 2006
The votes are in. Incumbent Hugo Chávez was declared the winner of Venezuela's December 3rd presidential elections with 7,161,637, or 62.89% of the votes cast, against the 4,196,329 votes, or 36.85%, received by his closest rival, Manuel Rosales. A total of 14 candidates competed, supported by 79 parties, 24 of which supported Chávez, and 43 of which backed Rosales. None of the other candidates received over 1% of the vote. The reelected President will begin his second six-year term under the 1999 Constitution in February 2007.
These results reflect the participation of over 11 million, or 74.87% of the country's registered voters, compared to the 69.92% that participated in the most recent vote affecting the Presidency of the Republic, the recall referendum of August 2004. Inversely, these numbers display the lowest abstention rate in Venezuelan presidential elections since 1988, when Carlos Andrés Pérez was elected with 81.2% of registered voters participating. It is worth noting that voting was compulsory in Venezuela until 1999, and that the electoral universe has expanded tremendously since Chávez was first elected in 1998 (from 11 million to 16 million, thanks in part to massive nation-wide registration drives).
Abstention as an electoral strategy, promoted by certain sectors of the opposition, notably the near-defunct Acción Democrática (AD), which dominated Venezuelan political life for nearly 40 years, has hereby been defeated. It would also seem, although it needs to be confirmed by future elections, that a decades-long tendency of increasing political apathy among Venezuelans has been reversed.
Although falling short of the stated goal of "10 million" votes (a curious and unrealistic campaign slogan reminiscent of Cuba's failed 10 million ton sugar harvest of 1970) Chavismo thus reaches its highest number of votes, with a significant increase, both absolute and proportional, over its performance in the 2004 referendum, when the "No" option ("No" to recalling Chávez) got nearly 6 million votes, or 59.09%. The organized opposition, for its part, saw a slight decrease in its share of the vote, despite receiving an additional 100,000 votes. What this means, politically, is that the opposition has a large "hard core" of supporters composed of practically the same sectors as two years ago. Chavismo, on the other hand, has not been able to penetrate this core, but has made some inroads, reflected by over a million new votes, among the so-called middle class, which is benefiting from a booming economy. Chávez won every one of the country's 24 states, including, albeit by a small margin, oil-rich Zulia, where his rival is governor.
Existing doubts about the opposition's response to an expected Chávez victory dissipated as soon as Rosales recognized his defeat, although insisting the margin was smaller than that announced by the CNE (he did not say by how much). Teodoro Petkoff, the renown ex-guerrilla-turned-neoliberal newspaper editor and perennial presidential hopeful who managed the Rosales campaign, expressed his satisfaction with the electoral process.
Other sectors of the opposition may have hoped for a less courteous resolution. Rafael Poleo, of the privately-owned channel Globovisión, had recently called on opposition sympathizers, Rosales, and the military, to take the streets following the election, making references to Ukraine's "Orange Revolution", because allegedly Chávez would be proclaimed winner "no matter what the numbers really say." Interestingly, the U.S.-based polling firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, known for its shadowy involvement in elections in places like Ukraine, Serbia, and Belarus, was one of three firms (the other two have proven ties to the Venezuelan opposition) that published polls announcing a "dead heat" between Chávez y Rosales in the weeks prior to the event, even though all other polls gave Chávez the clear advantage.
Nonetheless, signs seem to indicate that the majority of the opposition, after repeated defeats of its insurgent strategy, has finally opted to embrace what it only hesitantly began to contemplate in 2004: institutionality. Indeed, the opposition never recognized the results of that year's referendum, despite the approval of international observers like the Carter Center and OAS. In 2005, all major opposition candidates withdrew at the last moment from parliamentary elections, despite assurances that it would not do so if its conditions were met (which they were), allowing Chavismo to take total control of the National Assembly.
Undoubtedly, one important reason for this change is the U.S. government's increasing unwillingness to pursue open confrontation with Venezuela at this time, as a result of the weakening of the Bush administration and the Republican Party during this year's midterm elections. Recent overtures, following the election, by Subsecretary of State for Hemispheric Affairs Thomas Shannon and U.S. ambassador in Venezuela William Brownfield, which contrast starkly with comments made by U.S. officials in the past, attest to this. Still, Venezuelans doubt that any real policy change will come while George W. Bush is still in office, as evidenced by Chávez's lukewarm response to Shannon and Brownfield's comments.
In any case, it is unlikely that relations with the U.S. will deteriorate any further with a Democrat in the White House. What this implies is that, unless a sudden and significant shift in the international balance of forces takes place, over the next six years we can expect to see the Venezuelan extreme right become increasingly isolated, and the "institutional" opposition become increasingly coherent, both ideologically and organizationally, as it assumes its role more seriously.
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