[Writing for In These Times, Steve Ellner argues that following Hugo Chávez's resounding victory in Venezuela's recent presidential elections, Chavez is now stronger than at any time during his nearly eight years in power. Conversely, the opposition has reached an all-time low, losing in all 23 states.The results represent a mandate for Chávez to deepen what he and his followers call the “revolutionary process.” --Ed]
Venzuelan President Hugo Chavez hugs Bolivian President Evo
Morales, during the closing ceremony of the social summit of the People.
Chávez Consolidates Power
By Steve Ellner - In These Times
December 31, 2006
The big news item coming out of Venezuela on December 3 was not President Hugo Chávez’ reelection, but his wide margin of victory. With 62 percent of the vote—the largest ever for Chávez—the former coup leader is stronger than at any time during his eight years in power. Conversely, the opposition has reached an all-time low, losing in all 23 states.
The results represent a mandate for Chávez to deepen what he and his followers call the “revolutionary process.” Rank-and-file members of the Chávez movement overwhelmingly call for an all-out war on corruption and a leadership shakeup within its ranks, particularly among governors, mayors and others at the local level. Chávez expressed the same spirit in his victory speech when he called for brandishing two swords, “one against corruption and the other against bureaucratization.” Many of the movement’s hard-liners, encouraged by Chávez’s own rhetoric, argue that such a campaign goes hand-in-hand with social and economic policies producing far-reaching transformation.
Events since Chávez was first elected president in 1998 also presage important changes for 2007. Every time Chávez has emerged victorious, he has consolidated political control and taken new, bold measures. His triumphs have included the ratification of a new constitution in a national referendum in 1999, the return to power after a two-day coup in April 2002, the defeat of a two-month general strike beginning later that year and his victory in the presidential recall election in 2004. In early 2005, Chávez pushed the limits again by calling for the construction of a new “socialist” model for Venezuela, although he failed to enter into specifics.
Chávez faces a favorable international climate for radical change. Indeed, the Latin American left has never been so well positioned. Chávez’s success in December continues an electoral trend in favor of the Latin American left. The first happened in December 2005 in Bolivia where Chávez’s friend Evo Morales received enough votes to avoid a runoff election. In mid-2006, the left’s fortunes seemed to change with defeats in Peru, Colombia and Mexico. These results were interpreted by some pundits as a setback for Chávez’s activist diplomacy and a sign that the left was on the retreat. However, despite the losses, leftists leapt onto the national stage in all three countries where they had long been confined to the local and state levels. Since then, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected president in Brazil, and in November Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega emerged triumphant in Nicaragua, followed by leftist Rafael Correa in Ecuador.
These developments feed into Chávez’s strategy to promote a bloc of Latin American nations with objectives similar to the European Union. Chávez insists that such a formation should exclude the United States until Latin America is able to meet it on equal terms. Venezuela’s entrance into the common market known as MERCOSUR in 2006 was a step in this direction. MERCOSUR members Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are also run by left-leaning governments. Significantly, MERCOSUR nations acted as a bloc by supporting Venezuela in its unsuccessful bid in October for a non-permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.
And yet, in one sense, Chávez’s electoral success is a liability. The December results reinforce the accusations of Chávez’s detractors and much of the national and foreign media that the Venezuelan president has amassed excessive power. The opposition controls only two of the nation’s 23 governorships and an equally small percentage of municipal governments.
But whether competitive politics flourishes largely depends on the opposition. Until now, the main parties of the opposition, including the two largest, Democratic Action (AD) and “Justice First,” have acted as a “disloyal opposition.” They have rejected Chávez’s legitimacy and systematically opposed all his actions. AD actually boycotted the December elections.
Consequently, one of the other major news items on December 3 was opposition candidate Manuel Rosales’ recognition of defeat, although he claimed without plausible evidence that he had been robbed of a significant number of votes. Two days later, Rosales admitted that the National Electoral Council’s manual auditing attested to the accuracy of the official tally. At the same time, he apologized for the “past errors” of the opposition.
While the hard-liners accuse Rosales of having “sold out,” opposition political analyst Tulio Hernández has argued that his immediate recognition of defeat “rids the opposition of the stigma of being pro-military coup.” According to Hernández, Rosales’ posture confirmed that “the majority of the opposition has always been democratic.” Hernández holds Chávez responsible for promoting the notion that the opposition is anti-democratic and a “lackey of the U.S. empire.”
But the opposition hasn’t only been hurt by its intransigence. Its string of setbacks is also due to its failure to break with the neoliberal economic formulas of the past that Chávez has repeatedly excoriated. It continues to support policies that would downsize the state and turn over economic decisionmaking to the private sector.
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